A Step Towards Convergence on Avoided Emissions Methodologies

Overview: Illustrative Potential, Planned and Avoided Emissions Assessments for a biological
inoculant that can partially replace synthetic Nitrogen-fertilizer use, resulting in avoided emissions across both manufacturing (CO₂) and field-use emissions (N₂O).

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Problem Addressed: Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are a major source of agricultural emissions (~10.6% of sector GHGs, 2.1% of global emissions in 2018). Production is energy-intensive, while field application causes significant N₂O emissions (GWP 273x CO₂).
 

Solution Assessed: Non-transgenic, gene-edited microbes that fix atmospheric nitrogen, enabling 15-30% reduction in synthetic fertilizer use per acre without yield loss.

Overview: Illustrative Potential (“top-down”) and Planned (“bottom-up”) Avoided Emissions Assessments for industrial-scale pressurized alkaline (AEL) electrolysers producing green
hydrogen in Europe. Highlights challenges of estimating avoided emissions across diverse industrial end-uses and varying market scenarios.
 

Problem Addressed: Decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors—steel, ammonia, methanol, refining—requires low-carbon hydrogen. Grey hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels via SMR, emits ~920 Mt CO₂ annually (~2.5% of global energy emissions). Less than 1% of hydrogen today is produced via electrolysis. Barriers include high costs, limited infrastructure, end-use readiness and policy and regulatory uncertainty.

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Solution Assessed: Industrial-scale AEL electrolyzers powered by renewables to produce green hydrogen, replacing grey hydrogen and fossil fuels in high-emission industrial applications.

Overview: Illustrative forward-looking Planned Avoided Emissions Impact Assessment for a UK-based company developing three grid-balancing solutions: Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH), and Green Hydrogen production.

 

Problem Addressed: Wind and solar generation often misalign with demand, leading to curtailment, grid stress, and emissions. In Great Britain, wind curtailment alone caused £507
million in costs and 1.02 Mt CO₂e emissions annually (2020–2021). Flexible storage and hydrogen solutions are critical for integrating renewables and reducing emissions across sectors.

 

Solution Assessed: The Planned Impact assessment estimates the avoided emissions potential of BESS, PSH, and Green Hydrogen based on projected commercial capacity growth, highlighting their role in decarbonizing the UK’s power and industrial systems.